Northern Lights Forecast: How to Predict the Aurora Borealis (2024)

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You want to check the forecast for the Northern Lights, but you don’t know where or what to look for. Every Aurora chaser has been there before; that’s why in this guide, I’ll give you all the keys to accurately predict the Northern Lights, and get the best photos!

Learninghow to read the Northern Lights forecast and be patient is crucial if you want to increase your chances of seeing this elusive phenomenon. No matter how good you are at predicting the Northern Lights, forecasts can change in minutes!

Today, it’s easier than ever to understand the Northern Lights forecast! Many Northern Lights prediction tools make it accessible to everyone, so you don’t need advanced knowledge in physics or to memorize complex formulas.

I’ve been photographing the Northern Lights all over the world for many years, and in this article, I’ll summarize all my knowledge so you can learnhow to read the Northern Lights forecast in an easy way.

Content:

1. How to predict the Northern Lights: What to Know
2. Northern Lights forecast tonight
3. Northern Lights forecast in Iceland
4. Northern Lights forecast in Alaska
5. Northern Lights forecast in Canada
6. Northern Lights forecast in Norway
7. Northern Lights forecast in Finland
8. Solar cycle and Northern Lights: Is 2023 a good year to see the Northern Lights?

How to predict the Northern Lights

Before discussing how to predict the Northern Lights, I recommend that you take a look at our articles on the best time to see Northern Lights and the best places to see Northern Lights. For a favorable Northern Lights forecast it’s crucial to be at the right place since you can’t see the Aurora everywhere in the world.

Now, let’s learn toread the Aurora forecastand theNorthern Lights mapsso you canpredict the Northern Lights in real-time.

In the Northern Lights forecast, there are three main indicators for tracking the Aurora:

• Kp Index
• Ovation Auroral
• Solar Rotation

KP Index in Northern Lights forecast

The KP index is the most common way toforecast the Northern Lights,and you can use it both forshort-term and long-term Aurora prediction.

ThisAurora forecast indicator (known as “planetary K-index”) is simply a scale to measure the geomagnetic activity that is directly related toNorthern Lights visibility. Here, you can learn a little more about what causes the Northern Lights.

The KP-index ranges from 0-9and, generally speaking, has the following implications for theNorthern Lights forecast:

• The higher the KP-index, the further south you can see the Northern Lights.
• The higher the KP-index, the more likely you will see a big Northern Lights display at higher latitudes.

See Also

Glendale App, the world's most accurate aurora app.The tourist guide to Glendale on the Isle of Skye.The tourist guide to Glendale on the Isle of Skye.User Guide & Installation Instructions for Glendale App (aurora-alerts.uk).

For example, with a KP 3, you’re very likely to see the Northern Lights in Iceland, but if you want to see the Northern Lights in England, the data says that you’ll need a KP 5 or higher.

KP is just an indicator, but in most situations:

KP 1 to 3: Auroras are usually quiet and faint. The predominant color is green, and they are most visible in the northern sky at high latitudes. It’s hard to see them with your eyes, but a camera can capture the green glow.

KP 4 to 6: The Northern Lights are active. You can see how they move across the sky, possibly showing vivid colors like yellow, pink, or purple tones. Aurora coronas are also possible, and the Northern Lights can be visible at lower latitudes, such as in England or the Northern states of the USA. It’s easy to see them with your eyes and see how they move across the sky, they lightly illuminate the sky.

KP 7 to 9: Strong Aurora activity. The Northern Lights are easily visible. They can cover the entire sky and show rarer colors like red. Aurora coronas are common, and the Northern Lights can be visible at lower latitudes, such as in California, France, and even northern Spain.

It is already considered a solar storm of grade G1 at KP5. KP6 indicates a solar storm of grade G2, KP7 means a solar storm of grade G3, KP8 means a solar storm of grade G4, and KP9 solar storm of grade G5, the maximum ever recorded.

Long-Term Northern Lights forecast – Long-term KP Index

Predicting the Northern Lights over the long term can be challenging. Coronal mass ejections (CME), which cause most of the solar storms and, therefore, stronger Auroras, are forecasted 15 days in advance, but their strength and shape can vary once they get closer to Earth.

The best way toforecast the Northern Lightsin advance is by using the long-term KP index.

I use, and recommend, SpaceWeatherlive. It also shows the moon phase, which is helpful and intuitive a the same time.

Is the KP forecast a good indicator for the Northern Lights Forecast?

The KP index is the easiest Northern Lights indicator to understand; however, always take this index with a grain of salt because it’s not always accurate, in some occasions, you can see strong Auroras even with a low KP forecast.

Moreover, the KP forecast requires a certain amount of time to be updated, while strong geomagnetic storms can occur rapidly. There are instances when the display of the Northern Lights has already ended before the KP index is refreshed, and for this reason, it is useful to consider additional tools for an accurate Northern Lights forecast.

Interplanetary magnetic field and Bz in Northern Lights forecast

The most reliable indicator to check in the Northern Lightsforecast is the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). When the IMF north-south direction is negative, measured in the value called “Bz”, there is a big chance of seeing the Northern Lights, even with a low KP. All the main Aurora apps show this value on their data, and it’s the best indicator to predict great Northern Lights displays.

The only cons of this indicator is the relatively short-term notice as this is measured by the Deep Space Climate Observatory satellite called DSCOVR, which is located between our planet and the sun. We don’t have reliable data on this until about 1 hour before the Northern Lights can be seen on Earth.

Ovation Auroral Northern Lights prediction

TheOvation Auroral forecastis a model that provides ashort-term Northern Lights forecast.

This model displays theNorthern Lights forecast maparound the Auroral oval zone, so if you’re inside the Northern Lights covered area or around 500 miles (800 km) above or below, you’ll havea chance of seeing the Aurora.

The intensity of the Aurora is shown in different colors, ranging from green (faint/normal activity) to yellow (higher activity), and finally red (very strong activity).

This Aurora forecast is also known as the NOAA Northern Lights forecast since it’s provided by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center.

Below, you can see the NOAA Northern Lights forecastin real-time:

The Ovation Auroral forecast provides ashort-term Aurora forecast. If you go to their website and press play, you’ll see an animated graphic with the Northern Lights viewing forecast for today.

Solar Rotation − Long-Term Northern Lights Forecast

Another thing to consider in the long-term Northern Lights forecastis thesolar rotation.

The sun rotates on its axis in a27-day cycle, and if it ‘spits’ a big amount of solar particles towards the earth, this event will likely occur again after 27 days.

You can check the data about past KP forecasts on the following Aurora and solar activity archive.

However, don’t take this as a rule of thumb. It’s just another way to predict Northern Lights visibility in the long run.

Northern lights forecast tonight

The simplest and most straightforward way to know theNorthern Lights forecast for tonightis by using anAurora app such as My Aurora Forecast.

Most of the Aurora Forecast apps will show you all the information we mentioned before in a user-friendly and digestible manner, like the long-term KP, the short-term KP, and the Ovation Auroral forecast according to your location.

Some of them also include more technical data, like the solar wind direction and speed, and even pictures of the sunspots.

To me, the most interesting feature included in the best Northern Lights forecast apps is the alert andnotification system that triggers when the KP is rising in your location.

Best Apps to Forecast the Northern Lights

My Aurora Forecast

There are many great Northern Lights prediction apps on the market, but my favorite, and the one I always use, is “My Aurora forecast”. This free app includes all the basic and advanced features to forecast the Northern Lights according to your location.

This app is available for both iPhone and Android smartphones and if you are looking for a quick and easy way to predict Northern Lights, this is the app that I recommend. The main advantage of this app is that it’s very user-friendly. However, it lacks some advanced data and alerts that’s available on the next app of this list.

Glendale App

Glendale App is one of the most advanced tools to forecast the Northern Lights. It shows very detailed data, including images of Coronal Holes and Solar Flares on the surface of the Sun. It also shows information on the latest Coronal Mass Ejections (CME).

However, my favorite feature by far, is the possibility to have alerts on your smartphone when the solar activity increases in your location. Another great feature is the live feedback from users around the world who report their sightings of Northern Lights.

On the flip side, the Glendale App isn’t very intuitive, and it isn’t very welcoming for newer users. However, if you want to dive deep into the fascinating world of chasing the Aurora, I recommend getting acquainted with the Glendale App.

When checking the forecast for the Aurora on any of these apps, there are a few things to keep in mind. For instance, solar activity doesn’t affect everywhere in the same way. Also, some Northern Lights conditions, like the weather, change drastically from one location to another.

Remember that no matter how big the solar storm is, you’ll see nothing if the sky is covered. In addition to using Aurora Borealis prediction tools, you must check the weather forecast. Specifically, you want to check the cloud coverage, and for this, it’s very useful to use local tools that will show you the locations with clear skies near you where you can see the Aurora.

Adding to the apps mentioned before, these are the best Northern Lights forecastsdepending onyour specific location:

• Iceland
• Alaska
• Canada
• Norway
• Finland

Northern Lights Forecast in Iceland

The best Northern Lights forecast in Iceland is provided by the Icelandic Met office site.

On this site, you’ll see at a glance:

• TheReykjavik Northern Lights forecast and theAurora prediction for all the other areas in Iceland.

• TheMoon phase. This is also interesting since the full moon can make weak Auroras less visible. However, we have also seen the Northern Lights with a full moon.

• Thecloud coverage inreal-time. This is the most essential tool for chasing the Aurora across the island.

Regarding the long-term Northern Lights forecast in Iceland, you can check Spaceweatherlive.

You can find more information in this article we wrote about the best time and places to see Northern Lights in Iceland.

Northern Lights Forecast in Alaska

In terms of the best Northern Lights forecast in Alaska, the most complete site is the Geophysical Institute of Alaska.

On this site, you’ll find:

• The Alaska Northern Lights forecast in Fairbanks, Anchorage and all the Alaskan territory.

• The Ovation Auroral prediction.

• The current moon phase.

• The 27-day long-term Aurora forecast for Alaska.

You can also predict the Northern Lights in Fairbanks using this Northern Lights in real-time camera.

Lastly, this satellite cloud forecast for Alaska will help you succeed on your Northern Lights chasing experience in “the last frontier”.

For general Northern Lights forecasting in the USA, such as, for example, theAurora forecast in Minnesota,Montanaand other cities where you can see the Lights during big displays, I suggest checking the Aurora forecast from NOAA for short-term forecast and Spaceweatherlive for long-term forecast.

You can find more information in this article we wrote about the best time and places to see Northern Lights in Alaska.

Northern Lights Forecast in Canada

For the Northern Lights forecast in Canada, you can visit Aurora Watch.

On this website, you’ll find:

• TheShort-term Northern Lights forecast in Canada.

• Your % probabilityof seeing the Aurora in the Edmonton area. This is a good way to find out theAurora forecast in Banffand the Canadian Rockies.

• The historical data so you can plan your trip for the best time.

Before starting your Northern Lights hunt, you can also use this Cloud forecast in Canada. For further information, here is the post we have written about the best time and places to see Northern Lights in Canada.

Northern Lights Forecast in Norway

The best prediction site to forecast the Northern Lights in Norway is the Norwegian Center for Space Weather (NOSWE).

This site is the bible for Northern Lights in Norway, where you’ll find:

• Northern Lights forecast in Tromso, Oslo, Svalbard, and many other places.

• The Ovation Auroral forecast in Norway.

• Real-time Northern Lights cameras in different locations.

To check the cloud coverage forecast in Norway, the best site is YR.no.For more information, check our article on the best time and places to see Northern Lights in Norway.

Northern Lights forecast Finland and Sweden

For a Northern Lights forecast in Europe and other good regions to see the Aurora, like Finland or Sweden, you can use Auroras Now. For further information, here is the post we have written about the best time and places to see Northern Lights in Finland and the best time and places to see Northern Lights in Sweden.

To check the cloud forecast in Finland, use the SAA website.

Solar Cycle and Aurora Borealis: Is 2024 a good year to see the Northern Lights?

To finish this article, I just wanted to address one of the most common questions we receive these days:Is 2024 a good year to see the Northern Lights?

The Northern Lights depend entirely onsolar activity, whichfollows an 11 year-cycle.

During this 11-year cycle, the sun has less activity at the beginning and end of the cycle, called solar minimum, and a period of more activity inthe middle of the cycle, also known as solar maximum.

During thesolar maximum, there is a more significant activity, which increases the possibility of seeing more frequent geomagnetic storms and strong Northern Lightsat lower latitudes.

In 2024, we are supposed to hit the solar maximum of cycle number 25, so it’s considered an exceptional year to see the Northern Lights. The solar maximum was supposed to be in 2025, but experts from NOAA anticipated this date to late 2024 as you can read here.

This year, there will be more solar activity on average than in other years and more solar flares causing bigger displays at mid-latitudes.

2023 was a great year in terms of solar activity, and we saw great displays during our Iceland Northern Lights Photo Tour and our, with the biggest displays that we have seen in years.

Conclusion

Northern Lights forecastis real science, but it can be summarized by understanding a couple of concepts, like theKP-indexand theAurora prediction maps.

Use the KP as a rough idea for aNorthern Lights forecast. Make sure you’re trying to see the Lights when there is apromising Aurora predictionand not just an estimation of what time you’ll see them.

Don’t forget to check thecloud forecast.Even if the sun is melting, you won’t see the Aurora Borealis if the skies are covered.

Finally, my last tip: if you’re planning a Northern Lights trip and don’t want to be bothered by maps and data, download any of thebest Northern Lights forecast apps and activate the alarms/notifications to know when solar activity will increase in your location.

Please feel free to leave any questions about the Northern Lights forecast! Happy hunting!

PD. If you are a photographer, enjoy a lifetime experience chasing and shooting the Aurora with us on our Iceland Photo Tour or our Lofoten Islands Photo Tour!